With more than 100,000 Russian troops at Ukraine’s borders, Moscow issuing impossible demands, and weakness in the White House, war in Europe looms.
Now the world, and specifically the US, must decide: Does the fate of Ukraine matter? Do Ukrainians deserve material support for their defense? Some American commentators say “no.” They claim that Ukraine is of no real interest to the US. America, they suggest, is better served by a policy pivot to China and, anyway, we face more pressing problems at home.
But the fact remains: Ukraine matters to the US. To say this is not to be a neoconservative, or someone dedicated to democracy-planting and nation-building at almost any cost. Rather, this realist stance recognizes that European affairs are critical to America’s interests — be they immediate and obvious, or longer-term and systemic.
Global energy is, perhaps, the most immediate concern. European nations, including Germany, have dismantled many of their own, conventional energy sources in recent years. This capitulation to “green” political ideology has, in turn, led to dependence on Russia, which supplies much of Europe’s gas and oil.
Europe and the world, as a result, face a dilemma: Sanctions can be used to deter Russian aggression against Ukraine, but the Kremlin may respond by reducing energy exports. And if Europe does not have a sufficient energy supply, then it will have to be found elsewhere. The resulting squeeze on global supply will cause costs to rise everywhere, including at American fuel pumps.
But whatever the consequences of sanctioning Russia may be, a refusal to do so could be worse. An invasion itself — far more likely in the absence of deterrence — could also disrupt energy supplies and roil international markets. This is because Ukraine is vital for the transportation of Russian energy (even though it stands to lose market share when the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Russia and Germany is activated).
But Ukraine’s importance extends far beyond gas prices. After achieving independence from the USSR in 1991, the former Soviet state held an immense stockpile of nuclear weapons. Under the terms of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, signed by the US, the UK and Russia, Ukraine was granted promises in return for surrendering these weapons. As a result, the signatories agreed “to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.”
Ukraine surrendered its nuclear weaponry believing its borders would be honored. If the US does nothing now to support or defend it, how can American diplomacy attain its nuclear nonproliferation goals in the future? Why would other countries renounce nuclear weapons, and how could the US claim any credibility in requesting they do so?
The stakes are real: We are, for instance, still trying to convince Iran that it is better off without the bomb.
Most importantly, an invasion of Ukraine would represent an affront to the principles of modern international law, which prohibits the forcible alteration or conquest of territories. These principles — agreed on by Winston Churchill and FDR in the 1941 Atlantic Charter, and then codified in the UN Charter — are crucial to global stability and human rights. If Russia or any nation is allowed to violate them freely, then other, potentially aggressive nations will perceive no limit to their own ambitions.
Thus, it is illogical to shrug over Russia while arguing for a focus on China. Allow Russia to take Ukraine without consequence, and China is likely to move against Taiwan. In fact, military opportunism could soon overtake world affairs. Iran could attack Israel. North Korea could go on the offensive.
Ronald Reagan once said, “War comes not when the forces of freedom are strong, but when they are weak. It is then that tyrants are tempted.”
The road to instability and war begins where aggression is unmet, security promises are unkept and when America ignores its own, real interests in the world.
Augustus Howard is a columnist focusing on national politics and foreign policy.
This article was originally published by the NY Post. Read the original article.
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