To get an idea of just how dangerous the current Covid vaccines are, we only need to look at the numbers in the government-authorized VAERS database.
As you may know, VAERS is an acronym for Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System. This system is co-maintained by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). This is how the FDA describes this facility on its website:
“VAERS is an early warning system used to monitor adverse events that happen after vaccination. VAERS is the frontline system of a comprehensive vaccine safety monitoring program in the United States… VAERS gives vaccine safety experts valuable information so they can assess possible vaccine safety concerns, including the new COVID-19 vaccines. It is especially useful for detecting unusual or unexpected patterns of health problems (also called “adverse events”) that might indicate a possible safety problem with a vaccine.”
Established in 1990, the idea behind VAERS is to capture as many adverse reactions to vaccines as possible in order to alert health experts to potential issues and problems.
The graph below traces the number of deaths that have been reported to VAERS every year since its inception. As you can see, the yearly levels have held relatively steady from 1990 until 2020 and were generally under 400 cases. The cumulative total of all reported deaths during those years comes to 5,178 (see VAERS analysis here).
This, however, changed dramatically toward the end of 2020 when the Covid vaccines were introduced. At that point, we see a rapid explosion in reported deaths. So exponential was the increase that the graph line shoots up almost vertically.
As of November 26, 2021, the number of deaths reported to VAERS in connection with the Covid vaccines was 19,532. It is both astonishing and revealing that in the last 11 months there were more reports of vaccine deaths related to Covid shots than to all other vaccines combined during the previous three decades.
This should raise all kinds of red flags because it is a good indication that there may be something seriously wrong with the Covid vaccines, and that these hastily authorized pharmaceuticals are causing death on an unprecedented scale.
The 19,532 tally does not, however, give us an accurate picture of the situation. To get a sense of the true state affairs, this number needs to be adjusted for two very important factors. The first concerns the nature of VAERS data itself, while the second relates to the way in which it is collected.
Adjustment for causality
To begin with, we need to recognize that not all deaths reported to VAERS are due to the vaccines. To see why, we must understand the difference between a temporal and causal connection. Even though the bulk of reported deaths normally occurs within a relatively short time of vaccination – usually from days to weeks – it does not necessarily mean that all those who have died after having taken the vaccine perished because of it. In some cases, people who appear among VAERS entries died of causes unrelated to the vaccine, and they just happened to receive their injections in temporal proximity of their passing.
In order not to overstate the case when considering VAERS data, it is, therefore, important to keep in mind that reported cases do not necessarily imply causality. The question, then, becomes in what proportion of VAERS entries a causal link can be established.
To help us make this assessment we use the findings of a peer-reviewed study that examined this issue. The title of the study is “Causality Assessment of Adverse Events Reported to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS).” The study was published in 2012 and you can view it at this link at the National Library of Medicine.
The study found a “definite” or “probable” causal link between the vaccine and the adverse event in 23 percent of entries in the VAERS database. In another 20 percent of cases, a causal link was “possible.”
In order not to inflate our numbers, we will assume that a definite or a probable link exists in only 20 percent of death entries entered into VAERS in connection with the Covid vaccines. In other words, we will assume that in 8 out of 10 entries, the vaccines were not responsible for the demise of the person. We will take this cautious position despite the fact that in most cases the filing party – mostly health care professionals – believed that the reported deaths occurred as a result of the vaccine. To put it in a different way, we will assume that the filers were mistaken 80 percent of the time.
When we adjust the 19,532 figure for this variable, we obtain 3,906 (19,532 x 0.2). This would be the number of deaths that were definitely or likely attributable to the Covid vaccines per the VAERS records.
Adjustment for underreporting
This number, however, does not accurately reflect the real death toll of the vaccines. This is because it is well known that the VAERS numbers are vastly underreported.
The under-reporting is due to a host of reasons. Most doctors, for example, are hard pressed for time and they do not wish to go through the time-consuming administrative process of filing claims, which is a task for which they receive no compensation. Doctors are also generally discouraged by the environment in which they work from reporting this kind of data in order not to shed a bad light on pharmaceutical products, which are the lifeblood of modern medicine. Be that as it may, it is an undisputed fact that only a very small fraction of the actual adverse events end up being reported to the VAERS database.
A number of authorities believe that fraction to be one percent or less. One of them is Dr. David A. Kessler, a former FDA Commissioner who – in support of his 1993 article thesis – referenced a study that found that “only about 1% of serious events are reported to the FDA.”
Kessler should know of which he speaks since in addition to his high-profile appointments as a public health official he also holds a Medical Degree from Harvard and a law degree from the University of Chicago.
Kessler’s view was reaffirmed by a 2010 report by Harvard Pilgrim Healthcare for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services which concluded that “fewer than 1% of vaccine adverse events are reported” (see page 6 of the report).
Ronald A. Kostoff is another high-profile scientist who believes that one percent is the correct estimate. In a recent paper he observed, “historically, VAERS has been shown to report about 1% of actual vaccine/inoculation adverse events.”
If these authorities are correct, then the underreporting factor (URF) of the VAERS database is 100.
To ensure that they err on the side of caution rather than the other way around, some researchers use a more conservative URF in their analysis. Steve Kirsch, for example, generally uses the underreporting factor of 41 in his calculations. The lowest URF factor this writer has come across in the work of credible analysts is 36. In order to be as conservative as possible, we will use this figure in our analysis.
If we, then, adjust our VEARS number for this variable, we will obtain the result of 140,616 (3,906 x 36). This would represent the number of Americans killed by the Covid vaccines in a period of fewer than 12 months starting in mid-December 2020 through November 26, 2021.
Please keep in mind that the above is a very conservative estimate, which we have arrived at by assuming a 20 percent causality link in reported death entries in the VAERS database and the underreporting factor of 36. This, however, is likely a gross understatement of the actual situation.
Using less conservative assumptions, many researchers have come up with a higher death toll. Steve Kirsch, Jessica Rose, and Mathew Crawford, for example, estimated in their paper that the vaccines have likely claimed 150,000 lives as of August 28, 2021.
If we use the underreporting factor of 100 (one hundred) advocated by David A. Kessler, Ronald Kostoff, and the Department of Health and Human Services we would arrive at the figure of 390,600 deaths attributable to the vaccines.
It is quite probable that these figures are closer to the actual vaccine death toll than the one we obtained based on our cautious assumptions.
Be that as it may, we can say with a considerable degree of confidence that based on the VAERS figures, it is very likely that the Covid vaccines have killed or directly contributed to the deaths of at least 140,000 Americans.
To give us a sense of perspective, in less than 12 months more than twice as many Americans perished by vaccines than lost their lives during the whole of the Vietnam war.
By claiming the lives of so many people in such a short time, the Covid vaccines are the deadliest pharmaceuticals ever released into wide circulation.
The opinions expressed by the author are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of ThinkCivics.com.
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